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 crash narrative


From Narratives to Probabilistic Reasoning: Predicting and Interpreting Drivers' Hazardous Actions in Crashes Using Large Language Model

Chen, Boyou, Xu, Gerui, Wang, Zifei, Guo, Huizhong, Ahmed, Ananna, Sun, Zhaonan, Hu, Zhen, Zhang, Kaihan, Bao, Shan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vehicle crashes involve complex interactions between road users, split-second decisions, and challenging environmental conditions. Among these, two-vehicle crashes are the most prevalent, accounting for approximately 70% of roadway crashes and posing a significant challenge to traffic safety. Identifying Driver Hazardous Action (DHA) is essential for understanding crash causation, yet the reliability of DHA data in large-scale databases is limited by inconsistent and labor-intensive manual coding practices. Here, we present an innovative framework that leverages a fine-tuned large language model to automatically infer DHAs from textual crash narratives, thereby improving the validity and interpretability of DHA classifications. Using five years of two-vehicle crash data from MTCF, we fine-tuned the Llama 3.2 1B model on detailed crash narratives and benchmarked its performance against conventional machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and a neural network. The fine-tuned LLM achieved an overall accuracy of 80%, surpassing all baseline models and demonstrating pronounced improvements in scenarios with imbalanced data. To increase interpretability, we developed a probabilistic reasoning approach, analyzing model output shifts across original test sets and three targeted counterfactual scenarios: variations in driver distraction and age. Our analysis revealed that introducing distraction for one driver substantially increased the likelihood of "General Unsafe Driving"; distraction for both drivers maximized the probability of "Both Drivers Took Hazardous Actions"; and assigning a teen driver markedly elevated the probability of "Speed and Stopping Violations." Our framework and analytical methods provide a robust and interpretable solution for large-scale automated DHA detection, offering new opportunities for traffic safety analysis and intervention.


Domain-Adapted Pre-trained Language Models for Implicit Information Extraction in Crash Narratives

Wang, Xixi, Kovaceva, Jordanka, Costa, Miguel, Wang, Shuai, Pereira, Francisco Camara, Thomson, Robert

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Free-text crash narratives recorded in real-world crash databases have been shown to play a significant role in improving traffic safety. However, large-scale analyses remain difficult to implement as there are no documented tools that can batch process the unstructured, non standardized text content written by various authors with diverse experience and attention to detail. In recent years, Transformer-based pre-trained language models (PLMs), such as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and large language models (LLMs), have demonstrated strong capabilities across various natural language processing tasks. These models can extract explicit facts from crash narratives, but their performance declines on inference-heavy tasks in, for example, Crash Type identification, which can involve nearly 100 categories. Moreover, relying on closed LLMs through external APIs raises privacy concerns for sensitive crash data. Additionally, these black-box tools often underperform due to limited domain knowledge. Motivated by these challenges, we study whether compact open-source PLMs can support reasoning-intensive extraction from crash narratives. We target two challenging objectives: 1) identifying the Manner of Collision for a crash, and 2) Crash Type for each vehicle involved in the crash event from real-world crash narratives. To bridge domain gaps, we apply fine-tuning techniques to inject task-specific knowledge to LLMs with Low-Rank Adaption (LoRA) and BERT. Experiments on the authoritative real-world dataset Crash Investigation Sampling System (CISS) demonstrate that our fine-tuned compact models outperform strong closed LLMs, such as GPT-4o, while requiring only minimal training resources. Further analysis reveals that the fine-tuned PLMs can capture richer narrative details and even correct some mislabeled annotations in the dataset.


Accuracy is Not Agreement: Expert-Aligned Evaluation of Crash Narrative Classification Models

Bhagat, Sudesh Ramesh, Shihab, Ibne Farabi, Sharma, Anuj

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates the relationship between deep learning (DL) model accuracy and expert agreement in classifying crash narratives. We evaluate five DL models -- including BERT variants, USE, and a zero-shot classifier -- against expert labels and narratives, and extend the analysis to four large language models (LLMs): GPT-4, LLaMA 3, Qwen, and Claude. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship: models with higher technical accuracy often show lower agreement with human experts, while LLMs demonstrate stronger expert alignment despite lower accuracy. We use Cohen's Kappa and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to quantify and visualize model-expert agreement, and employ SHAP analysis to explain misclassifications. Results show that expert-aligned models rely more on contextual and temporal cues than location-specific keywords. These findings suggest that accuracy alone is insufficient for safety-critical NLP tasks. We argue for incorporating expert agreement into model evaluation frameworks and highlight the potential of LLMs as interpretable tools in crash analysis pipelines.


Predicting person-level injury severity using crash narratives: A balanced approach with roadway classification and natural language process techniques

Majidi, Mohammad Zana, Karimi, Sajjad, Wang, Teng, Kluger, Robert, Souleyrette, Reginald

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting injuries and fatalities in traffic crashes plays a critical role in enhancing road safety, improving emergency response, and guiding public health interventions. This study investigates the added value of unstructured crash narratives (written by police officers at the scene) when combined with structured crash data to predict injury severity. Two widely used Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) and Word2Vec, were employed to extract semantic meaning from the narratives, and their effectiveness was compared. To address the challenge of class imbalance, a K-Nearest Neighbors-based oversampling method was applied to the training data prior to modeling. The dataset consists of crash records from Kentucky spanning 2019 to 2023. To account for roadway heterogeneity, three road classification schemes were used: (1) eight detailed functional classes (e.g., Urban Two-Lane, Rural Interstate, Urban Multilane Divided), (2) four broader paired categories (e.g., Urban vs. Rural, Freeway vs. Non-Freeway), and (3) a unified dataset without classification. A total of 102 machine learning models were developed by combining structured features and narrative-based features using the two NLP techniques alongside three ensemble algorithms: XGBoost, Random Forest, and AdaBoost. Results demonstrate that models incorporating narrative data consistently outperform those relying solely on structured data. Among all combinations, TF-IDF coupled with XGBoost yielded the most accurate predictions in most subgroups. The findings highlight the power of integrating textual and structured crash information to enhance person-level injury prediction. This work offers a practical and adaptable framework for transportation safety professionals to improve crash severity modeling, guide policy decisions, and design more effective countermeasures.


Identification of Potentially Misclassified Crash Narratives using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL)

Bhagat, Sudesh, Shihab, Ibne Farabi, Wood, Jonathan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research investigates the efficacy of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods in detecting misclassified intersection-related crashes in police-reported narratives. Using 2019 crash data from the Iowa Department of Transportation, we implemented and compared a comprehensive set of models, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, BERT Sentence Embeddings, BERT Word Embeddings, and Albert Model. Model performance was systematically validated against expert reviews of potentially misclassified narratives, providing a rigorous assessment of classification accuracy. Results demonstrated that while traditional ML methods exhibited superior overall performance compared to some DL approaches, the Albert Model achieved the highest agreement with expert classifications (73% with Expert 1) and original tabular data (58%). Statistical analysis revealed that the Albert Model maintained performance levels similar to inter-expert consistency rates, significantly outperforming other approaches, particularly on ambiguous narratives. This work addresses a critical gap in transportation safety research through multi-modal integration analysis, which achieved a 54.2% reduction in error rates by combining narrative text with structured crash data. We conclude that hybrid approaches combining automated classification with targeted expert review offer a practical methodology for improving crash data quality, with substantial implications for transportation safety management and policy development.


Unlocking Insights Addressing Alcohol Inference Mismatch through Database-Narrative Alignment

Bhagat, Sudesh, Kandiboina, Raghupathi, Shihab, Ibne Farabi, Knickerbocker, Skylar, Hawkins, Neal, Sharma, Anuj

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Road traffic crashes are a significant global cause of fatalities, emphasizing the urgent need for accurate crash data to enhance prevention strategies and inform policy development. This study addresses the challenge of alcohol inference mismatch (AIM) by employing database narrative alignment to identify AIM in crash data. A framework was developed to improve data quality in crash management systems and reduce the percentage of AIM crashes. Utilizing the BERT model, the analysis of 371,062 crash records from Iowa (2016-2022) revealed 2,767 AIM incidents, resulting in an overall AIM percentage of 24.03%. Statistical tools, including the Probit Logit model, were used to explore the crash characteristics affecting AIM patterns. The findings indicate that alcohol-related fatal crashes and nighttime incidents have a lower percentage of the mismatch, while crashes involving unknown vehicle types and older drivers are more susceptible to mismatch. The geospatial cluster as part of this study can identify the regions which have an increased need for education and training. These insights highlight the necessity for targeted training programs and data management teams to improve the accuracy of crash reporting and support evidence-based policymaking.


Exploring Traffic Crash Narratives in Jordan Using Text Mining Analytics

Jaradat, Shadi, Alhadidi, Taqwa I., Ashqar, Huthaifa I., Hossain, Ahmed, Elhenawy, Mohammed

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores traffic crash narratives in an attempt to inform and enhance effective traffic safety policies using text-mining analytics. Text mining techniques are employed to unravel key themes and trends within the narratives, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of the factors contributing to traffic crashes. This study collected crash data from five major freeways in Jordan that cover narratives of 7,587 records from 2018-2022. An unsupervised learning method was adopted to learn the pattern from crash data. Various text mining techniques, such as topic modeling, keyword extraction, and Word Co-Occurrence Network, were also used to reveal the co-occurrence of crash patterns. Results show that text mining analytics is a promising method and underscore the multifactorial nature of traffic crashes, including intertwining human decisions and vehicular conditions. The recurrent themes across all analyses highlight the need for a balanced approach to road safety, merging both proactive and reactive measures. Emphasis on driver education and awareness around animal-related incidents is paramount.


Large Language Models in Analyzing Crash Narratives -- A Comparative Study of ChatGPT, BARD and GPT-4

Mumtarin, Maroa, Chowdhury, Md Samiullah, Wood, Jonathan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In traffic safety research, extracting information from crash narratives using text analysis is a common practice. With recent advancements of large language models (LLM), it would be useful to know how the popular LLM interfaces perform in classifying or extracting information from crash narratives. To explore this, our study has used the three most popular publicly available LLM interfaces- ChatGPT, BARD and GPT4. This study investigated their usefulness and boundaries in extracting information and answering queries related to accidents from 100 crash narratives from Iowa and Kansas. During the investigation, their capabilities and limitations were assessed and their responses to the queries were compared. Five questions were asked related to the narratives: 1) Who is at-fault? 2) What is the manner of collision? 3) Has the crash occurred in a work-zone? 4) Did the crash involve pedestrians? and 5) What are the sequence of harmful events in the crash? For questions 1 through 4, the overall similarity among the LLMs were 70%, 35%, 96% and 89%, respectively. The similarities were higher while answering direct questions requiring binary responses and significantly lower for complex questions. To compare the responses to question 5, network diagram and centrality measures were analyzed. The network diagram from the three LLMs were not always similar although they sometimes have the same influencing events with high in-degree, out-degree and betweenness centrality. This study suggests using multiple models to extract viable information from narratives. Also, caution must be practiced while using these interfaces to obtain crucial safety related information.